Hey :)
Aron here with ValidatorAI.com 

Do you think this way?
Please tell me you do.

When I’m alone, my thoughts run wild, and I see things that others don’t.

Are you a numbers person? You’ll love this then…

This is how I’d rig the MLB and NBA, using a single employee at each event. This employee is already there - and you know they are there.

👉 Everything below is hypothetical.
I am not accusing these leagues of operating a fixed game.

Here are some mind-blowing statistics.

In baseball… if the count is 0-0 (0 balls, 0 strikes), in favor of neither the batter nor the pitcher, the expected batting average league-wide is approximately .300.

As you may know, if the ball/strike count tips in favor of the pitcher, the expected batting average can plummet. In fact, if the count is 0-2 (0 balls, 2 strikes) in favor of the pitcher, the expected batting average is a pitiful .157. If the count is largely in the batter’s favor, say 3-0 (3 balls, 0 strikes) the expected batting average is a solid .407.

Therefore, the only game that really matters in baseball is the count, and this expected outcome.

That’s where rigging the game comes into play.

Research has shown that if a batter KNOWS what pitch is coming, their average can soar near .500. When you have between 125 and 225 milliseconds to recognize the pitch and decide to swing, knowing what is coming removes the guesswork so muscle memory can take over. The pros are that good.

So, if you could rig the game to where the batter knows what pitch is coming, the game would greatly tilt in favor of the team with that information (hence the Astros trash can scandal being such a big deal). All the batters need is the advantage of information, and it’s a different outcome.

What if there was something already occurring in a baseball game that relayed this information to the players?

All eyes of suspicion (falsely) look to the umpires. Recent innovations in tracking pitch locations appear to be addressing any concerns that fans might have about a rogue umpire tilting the game in favor of one team. In fact, the replay system that’s recently been implemented gives the illusion of fairness… how could a game be rigged if there is a fair and impartial replay option to get the on-field calls correct? It’s a distraction.

Well, as we explored, the pitch information is enough to change the outcome of a single game… a 7-game series and a 162-game season… greatly.

What if…

The sounds of the game weren’t just random sounds. Sounds are played to entertain the audience constantly.

When the organ plays the “charge - charge” anthem, what if that was a signal to the players? Here’s your cue guys…

If you are a batter, and you hear “charge”, a fastball is about to be thrown. You don’t need to have many free signals in order to push a game in the direction you want. Just a few different sounds over the PA system - that the crowd deciphers as entertainment - could signal the plan.

Now your preferred batter has a 50% chance of a hit.

👍 And, with real-time live betting, the incentives are there to influence outcomes minute by minute. More about that in a little while.

Take the NBA as well.

The very best three-point shooters make around 40% of their shots. It’s very easy for a pro to miss a shot, without it looking intentional. Nearly everyone can do it.

And when the “defense! defense!” song plays - it’s a signal to the defending team to make a stop - so the offensive team relaxes (turns the ball over, closely misses a shot).

Old techniques to fix games won’t work these days…

It’s been studied and proven that free throw disparity in games can be the deciding factor in a contest. Did you know that in Game 6 of the 2002 Western Conference Finals between the Sacramento Kings and the Los Angeles Lakers… the Lakers shot 27 free throws in the fourth quarter alone?

Fans are now shrewd and have a close eye on the officiating. So, this wouldn’t fly today. Again, video reviews are softening the fans accusations of fixing. However, the league certainly knows… that shooting percentages and turnovers are highly predictable of wins.

A correlation coefficient of approximately 0.65 has been observed between FG% and team wins. So, a few misses here, a few makes there, and the game has been rigged.

Same with turnovers… consider this:

Teams that win the turnover battle win about 70% of the time. Just a +3 turnover advantage increases win probability by 15–20% in close games. That’s all you need to sway a series. 3 extra turnovers and the expected outcomes shift by 20 percent.

And both of these (FG percentage and turnovers) are easy to manipulate via the players if given the correct signal.

But why do it?

As a result of this strategy, Vegas can slide odds in their favor, every minute of every live game. We need a miss here, a turnover there, over 50 points by half, etc. Send the signal to the game - the audio cue is played; the players react accordingly. No audio cue, just play the game normal. We only need a few instances per game of a close miss or an errant pass to shift the incentives.

And the incentives are huge - and its always money.

In 2024, Americans legally wagered approximately $149.7 billion on sports in the United States, with over 95% of these bets placed online. 95% of the people are betting online, many choosing to wager on things during the game… so the incentive is to determine the maximum sports book payout in any given span and adjust the game accordingly.

In 2024, roughly $30-45 billion in the USA was wagered on in-game markets, including halftime over/under, player props, and other live outcomes. They need a system that can adjust the odds in the favor of the sports books.

This is entertainment. This is big business. It’s not sport - after all. So, that errant pass? That three pointer that hit the side of the rim? That 2-2 fastball hit into the bleachers?

Someone is getting paid. And it’s not you.

To further distract the fans, I’d flood them with stats that don’t matter. It would be a constant barrage of statistics and analysis that don’t mean anything to the outcome of the game - knowing that we’re manipulating the 1 or 2 statistics that actually matter. The fans would feel a high level of transparency (statistical analysis, expert commentary and a system that ensures officials are fair) - yet the clear cheat is happing in front of their eyes. And ears.

It’s perfect.

Anyway. That’s how I’d rig the NBA and MLB. And I’d do it right in front of everyone.

Sports are all about averages. Expected outcomes. Percentages. Sounds a lot like the betting markets, yes?

PS: How would one go about researching this?

Select a Sample of Games

Choose a specific number (10–20 games) from:
MLB YouTube channel for full-game replays.
NBA YouTube or NBA League Pass for full-game footage.

Gather Play-by-Play Data

Use official stat sites:
Baseball Savant, Retrosheet, or FanGraphs
NBA: NBA Stats, PBPStats.com

Synchronize Video & Data

Watch the game footage and note timestamps when stadium audio cues occur:
Example: "Defense!" chant at 4:32 in Q2
Example: "Charge!" sound before pitch in bottom of the 6th

Match those timestamps to exact plays in the play-by-play data (missed shot, defensive stop, pitch outcome).

Log Each Instance

Create a dataset with:

Analyze the Outcomes

Calculate the percentage of “Defense!” chants that led to defensive stops.
Compare pitch types or outcomes after stadium cues.
Look for statistically significant patterns (higher fastball frequency after certain cues).

* Analyze other audio cues to see correlations.

I mean. Go ahead.
If you’re bored.

If I told you I already did this… and found something interesting… would you believe me?

I know one thing - you’ll start noticing just how much these random sounds are played during a game now. :)

PS: 82 is still the startup idea score leader at: ValidatorAI.com

See if you can beat the high score!

In my queue to share with you:

How I’d Rig the NBA Using a Single Employee
This is How I’d Implement AI in Your Company Today
How Companies Make Decisions Based on Avoiding Pain
Why I Thought About a Random Football Box Score for a Week Straight
How to Establish Trust on Day One and Resolve Future Conflicts
Every Pitch Starts the Same Old Way — One Opening Line to Draw Them in
The Insane World of Domain Investing
Is Getting an MBA Worth it?

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Remember: Your life is valuable, and you’ve been uniquely gifted with talents and insights that no one else on earth has. You are a true 1 of 1 and there will never be another person with your exact experiences, skills and personality.

Take care. Talk soon.

Aron Meystedt

ValidatorAI.com
Symbolics.com 

Let’s connect on LinkedIn!